Download China’s Impossible Trinity: The Structural Challenges to the by Chi Lo PDF

By Chi Lo

This e-book highlights the tricky coverage selection that needs to finally be made in the course of China's structural reform based on the speculation of the most unlikely Trinity, among trade price and fiscal coverage autonomy.

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Extra info for China’s Impossible Trinity: The Structural Challenges to the “Chinese Dream”

Example text

The efficiency of China’s banking system, which is the world’s largest by total asset, has been kept below its potential both in terms of earnings and competitive power by its domestic focus and constraint. Opening the capital account and allowing the Chinese banks to expand overseas, either directly through cross-border bank lending or indirectly through lending to foreign affiliates, will help enlarge their market scope, improve earnings, enable management technology and knowledge transfer to the mainland, and diversify risk.

6 31 China: contribution to real GDP growth Source: CEIC, author’s calculation. 9). All this is evidence of economic restructuring even before the “Decision” was announced. These changing dynamics are essential for the eventual structural shift towards a consumption-driven economy. Urbanisation follows industrialisation because labour, and thus consumption, only moves to areas where jobs exist, and jobs are created where there is investment. The east–west migration of investment and industrialisation are thus mega trends that will facilitate the structural shift towards consumptiondriven growth over time.

Hence, the President has, presumably, taken the route of economic reforms first and political changes later. By strengthening his control within the Party, through cracking down on corruption, government opponents and critics in the media and even academia, he seeks to increase his ability to impose economic reforms while minimising the risk of being challenged by the reactionary forces. By not clashing with the vested interests before his power base is solidified, Mr Xi is trying to avoid giving his opponents the opportunity to build a critical mass of resistance.

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