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By Shahid Javed Burki, Guillermo E. Perry

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Extra resources for Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1998: banks and capital markets : sound financial systems for the 21st century : proceedings of a conference held in San Salvador, El Salvador

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Residential house construction) are so much more cyclically sensitive than other sectors. In addition to these empirical shortcomings, Keynesian economics had a number of undesirable theoretical properties. The assumptions were basically ad hoc and at variance with those used by microeconomists. Most importantly, the most important results in traditional microeconomics were the Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics, which established the efficiency of the market economy. These, however, are at variance with the motivation of Keynesian economics that the economy can suffer from prolonged periods of inefficient underutilization of resources.

Neither traditional Keynesian models nor the other strands that fail to integrate finance in a meaningful way, including new classical and real business cycle theories, can explain several important features of the economy. The most basic is the business cycle itself. Nothing in these theories explains the transmission, amplification, or persistence of shocks. In addition, they cannot explain why many supply shocks, the main impact of which should be redistribution, have such a large impact on the economy.

It is important to view the developing countries at these two levels since many national governments remain weak; some are even weakening. In India, for instance, many international players are ignoring the federal government and going to the sub-national level. This is particularly true of the software and information industries. If we move from the search for opportunities to the area of fears and apprehensions, we need to note as an illustration the fear that, in extreme cases, the collapse of the state would produce massive migration of people.

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